I will give you my prediction even though you didn't ask for it. So far I've made 2 this year and they were 40 million for CA2 (it did 38) and 80 million for T3 for the 5 day (it did 72). So for PotC I'm predicting 50 million for the 5 day weekend. It opens wide July 9th.
Of course my prediction is probably what you are paying for it:
Hitman
Of course my prediction is probably what you are paying for it:
Hitman
For what it's worth (not very much of late), I'm going with about $35mil for the 3-day weekend. This film, however, is going to be difficult to predict, because of alot of different factors, not the least of which is the way that the box office has performed over the last few weeks.
Take this prediction with a grain of salt, as I haven't exactly been tearing it up lately.
JP
Take this prediction with a grain of salt, as I haven't exactly been tearing it up lately.
JP
You could be right about CA2. Only reason I mentioned that was that, on average, people's predictions for CA2 were alot higher than they are for POTC. I would say that people were predicting between $55 and $65 for that film and about $30 to $40 for this one. But, I for one certainly am looking forward to POTC more so than I was CA2.
We shall see.
JP
We shall see.
JP
Intertops:
Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: Pirates of the Caribbean
3-day weekend from Friday, July 11 through Sunday, July 13.
Closing Date: Jul 09, 2003 21:00
USD 28 million to 35.9 million +150
USD 36 million or more +160
USD 20 million to 27.9 million +190
USD 19.9 million or less +260
Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: Pirates of the Caribbean
3-day weekend from Friday, July 11 through Sunday, July 13.
Closing Date: Jul 09, 2003 21:00
USD 28 million to 35.9 million +150
USD 36 million or more +160
USD 20 million to 27.9 million +190
USD 19.9 million or less +260
well, shit, I predicted 37 million, and the over 37.5 is -140 now. I guess I've got to take the under here, although I won't be surprised to see it go over 40. JCambert has mentioned some things that would indicate it will do pretty well this week. The buzz score right now stnads at 33, a bit lower than what Charlie's Angels was before it's release, but that was a Friday release, so it might not be a good comparison. I'm going to stay conservative with the current box office trend being what it is and stay low, under 37.5 at WSEX, and 28 to 35.9 at Intertops. A film like this should go higher than that, but so should have the last 4 or 5 big name releases. Olympic got hammered last week, I wonder what kind of line they'll put up. Their unders got hammered and I believe they all went under.
I would agree with you. If you held a gun to my head, I would say $30 to $35 mil. But, at the price, I like the over $36 at Intertops.
I might also wait to see if the line at Wsex continues to move. For right now, I don't see enough value at +110 to take under 37.5.
I think that this is such a difficult film to predict because of all the variables (screen count, Wednesday opening, Down box office, buzz).
JP
I might also wait to see if the line at Wsex continues to move. For right now, I don't see enough value at +110 to take under 37.5.
I think that this is such a difficult film to predict because of all the variables (screen count, Wednesday opening, Down box office, buzz).
JP
My opinion is that all of those variable you mentioned would lean towards the under, but that's just me, the buzz could quickly turn around by friday and it could end up being a big hit. I got that Intertops bracket at +150, so I'm liking that one as well, and I see they just changed their brackets if you want to hit it again. Over is now 38 there.
Yeah, but, what I meant about the screen counts was that there really is no accurate number right now. I've seen 3k, and, I've seen as high as 3300. It's a Bruckheimer production, so, I think it will skew towards the higher end of that range.
I think that a per theater average of $10.5k to $12.5k is a pretty good range, and, if it opens in, say 3150 (the exact middle of that range), it would be at $33mil to $39mil. So, my point is...who the heck knows?
JP
I think that a per theater average of $10.5k to $12.5k is a pretty good range, and, if it opens in, say 3150 (the exact middle of that range), it would be at $33mil to $39mil. So, my point is...who the heck knows?
JP
